Integrated framework for identifying transformative adaptation in agri-food systems

Climate change adaptation measures and practices may induce fundamental changes i.e. transformations in socio-ecological systems. Adaptation that intentionally aims for transformation is often intended to increase benefits and synergies with other broader societal development goals such as sustainability. Adaptation measures also have possible unintended negative effects that, in the case of system transformations, may be difficult to reverse. This study seeks to identify characteristic features of the adaptation processes that may result in agrifood system transformations. We introduce an integrated framework to identify these features and 'adaptation activity spaces', and apply this framework to the Nordic context, analysing stakeholder interviews that integrated serious gaming. The results show how transformations may result from adaptation measures targeted towards climate risks with an objective of changing either current practices or surrounding supportive structures. This study addresses reasons why transformative adaptation is not occurring in Nordic agri-food systems and presents novel information that may contribute to policymaking and further research needs on transformations in relation to adaptation decision-making.Peer reviewe

Benefits and challenges of serious gaming : the case of “The Maladaptation Game”

The use of digital tools and interactive technologies for farming systems has increased rapidly in recent years and is likely to continue to play a significant role in meeting future challenges. Particularly games and gaming are promising new and innovative communication strategies to inform and engage public and stakeholders with scientific research. This study offers an analysis of how a research based game on climate change maladaptation can support, but also hinder players’ sense-making processes. Through the analysis of eight gaming workshops, this study identifies challenges and support for the players’ sense-making. While it concludes that conceptual thinking of game content sometimes clashes with players’ everyday experiences and practice, possibly resulting in loss of credibility, this study also concludes that gaming may function as an eye-opener to new ways of thinking. Overall, this paper suggests that the communication of (social) science and agricultural practices through serious gaming has great potential but at the same time poses challenges due to different knowledge systems and interpretive frameworks among researchers and practitioners.The use of digital tools and interactive technologies for farming systems has increased rapidly in recent years and is likely to continue to play a significant role in meeting future challenges. Particularly games and gaming are promising new and innovative communication strategies to inform and engage public and stakeholders with scientific research. This study offers an analysis of how a research based game on climate change maladaptation can support, but also hinder players’ sense-making processes. Through the analysis of eight gaming workshops, this study identifies challenges and support for the players’ sense-making. While it concludes that conceptual thinking of game content sometimes clashes with players’ everyday experiences and practice, possibly resulting in loss of credibility, this study also concludes that gaming may function as an eye-opener to new ways of thinking. Overall, this paper suggests that the communication of (social) science and agricultural practices through serious gaming has great potential but at the same time poses challenges due to different knowledge systems and interpretive frameworks among researchers and practitioners.Peer reviewe

Maladaptation in Nordic Agriculture

Climatic changes are expected to pose challenges to Nordic agriculture. While some changes may provide opportunities for higher productivity, others may severely increase agricultural vulnerability. Farmers attempt to adapt or cope with these changes by taking measures to decrease vulnerability or to take advantage of potential benefits, but little is known what outcomes these adaptation measures might have. This study identifies unintended negative impacts of adaptation measures, drawing on a literature review and interviews with farmers and agricultural officials and experts in Sweden and Finland. Based on the conceptual framework of maladaptation, this study identifies outcomes that either increase the vulnerability of the implementing actor, shift the vulnerability to other actors or sectors or affect common pool resources. While a large number of adaptation measures rebound vulnerability to the implementing actor, several potential maladaptive outcomes may shift vulnerability or affect common pool resources. The findings point to the large number of trade-offs that are involved in adaptation decision-making and lead to the conclusion that raising awareness of these aspects can support future adaptation strategies.Peer reviewe

Climate indices for the tailoring of climate information : a systematic literature review of Swedish forestry and agriculture

Climate information is an important support for national adaptation plan processes, but there is at the same time a general desire that climate information should be more relevant and appropriate in relation to decision-making contexts. An initial step in such a development towards tailored climate information would be to understand the currently available climate indices, their defi-nitions and contexts. This study systematically reviews the scientific literature on climate indices and factors related to  specific climate impacts, and  in  this  way identifies currently available climate indices for Swedish forestry and agriculture. The identified indices are analysed relative to climate change impact categories from the vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans set out by the Swedish Forest Agency and the Swedish Board of Agriculture, to indicate development potentials and research gaps in climate indices. The review identifies 79 definitions of climate indices for forestry and 63 indices for agriculture in Sweden. The reviewed literature has employed or developed climate indices for only 11 of the 25 types of climate impact emphasised as important by the two sectoral authorities. Most of the climate indices identified have been adopted for use in modelling forest growth or crop growth and productivity. The results of the review found indices lacking for a substantial number of impacts that are relevant for Swedish forestry and agriculture. The study shows that scientific literature on climate indices to a very limited degree addresses the specific tailoring of climate indices. Potential reasons for the lack of climate indices are discussed, and the study suggests that there is a need to continue climate model development such that the models better represent relevant processes, to advance research on the co-design of indices together with sectoral stakeholders, and to enhance collaboration between adaptation, impact modelling and climatology research. The results of this study may be used in future research to analyse if and how the identified climate indices can be actionable for different stakeholders, and as a foundation to examine the demands and feasibilities of developing new tailored climate indices.   Funding: Swedish Research Council FORMASSwedish Research CouncilSwedish Research Council Formas [2019-01560]</p

Metodologi för bedömning av klimatsårbarhet : Nordiskt jordbruk i ett förändrat klimat

Food security and climate change mitigation are crucial missions for the agricultural sector and for global work on sustainable development. Concurrently, agricultural production is directly dependent on climatic conditions, making climate change adaptation strategies essential for the agricultural sector. There is consequently a need for researchers, planners, and practitioners to better understand how, why, and to what extent agriculture is vulnerable to climate change. Such analyses involve challenges in relation to the complex social– ecological character of the agricultural system and to the multiple conceptualizations and approaches used in analysing vulnerability. The aim of this thesis is to identify how vulnerability assessments can be used to represent climate-related vulnerability in Nordic agriculture, in order to advance the methodological development of indicator-based and geographic visualization methods. The following research questions are addressed: (i) How can agricultural vulnerability to climate change and variability in the Nordic countries be characterized? (ii) How do selections, definitions, and emphases of indicators influence how vulnerability is assessed? (iii) How do estimates of vulnerability vary depending on the methods used in assessments? (iv) How can geographic visualization be applied in integrated vulnerability assessments? This thesis analyses and applies various vulnerability assessment approaches in the context of Nordic agriculture. This thesis demonstrates that various methods for composing vulnerability indices result in significantly different outcomes, despite using the same set of indicators. A conceptual framework for geographic visualization approaches to vulnerability assessments was developed for the purpose of creating transparent and interactive assessments regarding the indicating variables, methods and assumptions applied, i.e., opening up the ‘black box’ of composite indices. This framework served as the foundation for developing the AgroExplore geographic visualization tool. The tool enables the user to interactively select, categorize, and weight indicators as well as to explore the data and the spatial patterns of the indicators and indices. AgroExplore was used in focus group settings with experts in the Swedish agricultural sector. The visualization-supported dialogue results confirm the difficulty of selecting and constructing indicators, including different perceptions of what indicators actually indicate, the assumption of linear relationships between the indicators and vulnerability, and, consequently, that the direction of the relationship is predefined for each indicator. This thesis further points at the inherent complexity of agricultural challenges and opportunities in the context of climate change as such. It is specifically emphasized that agricultural adaptation policies and measures involve trade-offs between various environmental and socio–economic objectives, and that their implementation could furthermore entail unintended consequences, i.e., potential maladaptive outcomes. Nevertheless, it proved difficult to validate indicators due to, e.g. matters of scale and data availability. While heavy precipitation and other extreme weather events are perceived as the most relevant drivers of climate vulnerability by the agricultural experts participating in this study, statistical analyses of historical data identified few significant relationships between crop yield losses and heavy precipitation. In conclusion, this thesis contributes to the method development of composite indices and indicator-based vulnerability assessment. A key conclusion is that assessments are method dependent and that indicator selection is related to aspects such as the system’s spatial scale and location as well as to indicator thresholds and defined relationships with vulnerability, recognizing the contextual dependency of agricultural vulnerability. Consequently, given the practicality of indicator-based methods, I stress with this thesis that future vulnerability studies must take into account and be transparent about the principles and limitations of indicator-based assessment methods in order to ensure their usefulness, validity, and relevance for guiding adaptation strategies.För jordbrukssektorn och global hållbar utveckling i stort är matsäkerhet och mitigering av klimatförändringar viktiga angelägenheter. Samtidigt är jordbruksproduktionen ofta direkt beroende av klimatförhållanden, vilket gör klimatanpassningsstrategier mycket centrala för sektorn. Forskare, planerare och aktörer behöver förstå hur, varför och i vilken omfattning jordbruket är sårbart inför klimatförändringar. Sådana analyser inbegriper även de utmaningar som skapas genom jordbrukets komplexa socio-ekologiska karaktär, och de många utgångspunkter och tillvägagångssätt som används för att bedöma sårbarhet. Syftet med denna avhandling är att identifiera hur sårbarhetsbedömningar kan representera klimatrelaterad sårbarhet i nordiskt jordbruk, och i och med detta har avhandlingen som avsikt att utveckla metodologin för indikatorbaserade- och geografiska visualiseringsmetoder. Följande forskningsfrågor avhandlas: (i) Hur kan det nordiska jordbrukets sårbarhet inför klimatvariation och förändringar karaktäriseras? (ii) Hur påverkar urval, definitioner och betoningar av indikatorer bedömningar av sårbarhet? (iii) Hur varierar uppskattningar med bedömningsmetod? (iv) Hur kan geografisk visualisering användas i integrerade såbarhetsbedömningar? För att svara på dessa frågor analyseras och tillämpas olika tillvägagångssätt att bedöma sårbarhet inom nordiskt jordbruk. Avhandlingen visar att olika metoder för sårbarhetskompositindex resulterar i signifikanta skillnader mellan index, trots att samma indikatorer och data används. Ett konceptuellt ramverk för sårberhetsbedömningar där geografisk visualisering används, har utvecklats för att möjliggöra transparens avseende till exempel. vilka variabler, metoder och antaganden som används i kompositindex. Detta ramverk har följaktligen legat till grund för att utveckla ett geografiskt visualiseringsverktyg – AgroExplore. Verktyget möjliggör interaktivitet där användaren kan välja, kategorisera och vikta indikatorer, och dessutom utforska data och spatiala mönster av indikatorer och kompositindex. AgroExplore användes i denna avhandling för att stödja fokusgruppdialoger med experter inom den svenska jordbrukssektorn. Resultaten från dessa workshops bekräftar svårigheten med att välja och skapa indikatorer. Dessa svårigheter innefattar olika uppfattningar om vad indikatorer representerar, antagandet om linjära samband mellan indikatorerna och sårbarhet, och följaktligen att sambandens riktning är fördefinierade för respektive indikator. Utöver de konceptuella och metodologiska utmaningarna med sårbarhetsbedömningar visar avhandlingen på komplexa svårigheter och möjligheter för jordbruket vid klimatförändringar. Särskilt framhålls att klimatanpassningspolitik och åtgärder inom jordbruket medför konflikter och avvägningar mellan olika miljö- och socio-ekonomiska mål. Implementering av sådana anpassningsåtgärder kan vidare innebära oönskade konsekvenser, så kallad missanpassning. Trots ökad kunskap gällande nordiska jordbrukets sårbarhet inför klimatförändringar har det visats sig vara svårt att statistiskt validera indikatorer på grund av, exempelvis, skalproblematik och datatillgänglighet. Samtidigt som experterna ansåg att kraftig nederbörd och andra extrema väderhändelser är de mest relevanta drivkrafterna till klimatsårbarhet visar den statistiska analysen av historiska data på få signifikanta samband mellan förlorad skördeavkastning och kraftig nederbörd. Denna avhandling bidrar till metodutveckling av kompositindex och indikatorbaserade metoder för sårbarhetsbedömningar. En viktig slutsats är att bedömningar är metodberoende och att valet av indikatorer är relaterat till aspekter såsom systemets utbredning och den spatiala skalan av bedömningen. Även indikatorernas tröskelvärden och hur deras relation till sårbarhet är definierade anses vara viktiga faktorer som påverkar hur indikatorer representerar sårbarhet, vilket visar på sårbarhetsbedömningars kontextuella beroende. I och med de rådande bristerna hos indikatorbaserade metoder, som bland annat har identifierats i denna avhandling, vill jag framhålla vikten av att sårbarhetsbedömningar bör vara transparanta gällande den tillämpade metodens principer, antaganden och begräsningar. Detta för att säkerställa användbarhet, giltighet och relevans, om metoden och bedömningen ska ligga till grund för anpassningsstrategier hos såväl politiker, planerare och lantbrukare.This is deliverable of the Nordic Centre of Excellence for Strategic Adaptation Research (NORD-STAR), funded by the Nordic Top-level Research Initiative Sub-programme ‘Effects Studies and Adaptation to Climate Change’.The work has also been supported by the Swedish Research Council FORMAS under Grant No. 2013-1557 ‘Identifying thresholds for maladaptation in Nordic agriculture’</p

Climate Suitable Energy Crops and Biomass Energy Potentials : Assessment of the Current and Future Prospects in Estonia

Development of biomass energy plantations is one approach to mitigate and adapt to climate change and the energy challenges related to it; however, climate change will affect the climate conditions and in turn the selection of crops and trees suitable for renewable energy sources. In Estonia, electricity is mainly based on oil shale but since their integration in the European Union they are required to increase the share of energy from renewable sources. In this study, the possible changes of suitable species are assessed by examining the current and the future prospects and potentials with biomass energy derived from energy plantations in Estonia, taking climate change into consideration. The biomass energy potentials for the species that are climate suitable in current and future time are manually estimated, using a case study approach when determining the yields. The study result suggests that biomass energy from crops and trees have great development possibilities and that climate is not a key limitation for the selection of suitable species; in addition, the energy crops and trees appear to suit the future climate conditions better than the current. The results indicate that the established national target of 25% of energy from renewable sources in gross final consumption of energy by 2020 could be achieved to a large extent by putting energy plantations into practice

From relevant to usable: Swedish agricultural extension officers’ perspectives on climate change projections

This study investigates the potential relevance, usefulness, and usability of climate change projections for Swedish agricultural planning and management. Although research indicates the importance of specific users acting as knowledge brokers for climate information, there are knowledge gaps concerning agricultural extension officers’ use of climate information. Through a survey and stakeholder workshops, perspectives of Swedish agricultural extension officers on climate change projections were collected. The results provide insights into “what” information in climate change projections that is relevant and “how” climate information may be presented and used. Based on the analysis of the workshop dialogues, four themes outlining the “what” and “how” were identified: (i) a need for additional climate indicators for Swedish agriculture, (ii) the criticalness of temporal precision, (iii) trade-offs between providing precision and an overview, and (iv) a relevance – usability contradiction. These results inform the basis for ongoing research and practical applications focused on agriculturally tailored climate information, as well as the broader development of climate service methodology. The study reveals a latent demand for climate change projections among respondents, indicating a perceived relevance of information on future climates, but limited current use and usability among agricultural extension officers. The requisite for tailored climate indicators is clear – in this case, for Swedish agricultural planning and management – but critical usability challenges need to be addressed to move from providing relevant information to achieving actual usage that can enhance the climate resilience in Swedish agriculture

Nordic agriculture under climate change: A systematic review of challenges, opportunities and adaptation strategies for crop production

The Nordic countries agricultural sector is potentially considered both a winner and loser in relation to climate change. With effective adaptation management, climate change could lead to increased agricultural productivity. Yet if concurrent challenges are left unaddressed, productivity losses may impede gains. Thus, adaptation to climate change is key both to avoid negative consequences and to benefit from opportunities. This paper conducts the first systematic literature review of scientific and grey literature on climate change related opportunities and challenges in Nordic agriculture, resulting in a complex overview of required adaptation actions. The synthesis on suggested adaptation policies and measures shows that farm based adaptation measures appear to be more abundant and more discussed than policy driven adaptation in the scientific literature. This paper identifies a knowledge gap regarding the complexity of adaptation needs and trade-offs in the Nordic agricultural sector. In conclusion, although the agricultural sector in the Nordic region is facing certain benefits from climate change, this review demonstrates profound challenges related directly to climate change. The synthesis of suggested adaptation actions furthermore indicates that adaptation involve trade-offs, however, increased knowledge on this subject is required. Failing to address these challenges might impede Nordic agricultures potential gains from climate change in a long-term perspective.Funding Agencies|Nordic Top-level Research Initiative Sub-programme Effects Studies and Adaptation to Climate Change; Swedish Research Council FORMAS [2013-1557]</p

Transformations towards sustainable food systems: contrasting Swedish practitioner perspectives with the European Commission’s Farm to Fork Strategy

This study explores features of food system transformations towards sustainability in the Farm to Fork Strategy in relation toperspectives of Swedish food system practitioners. Transformations towards sustainable food systems are essential to achievethe United Nations’ 2030 Agenda and the need for more sustainable food systems has been recognised in the European GreenDeal and its Farm to Fork Strategy. The Swedish ambition to act as a global leader in achieving the 2030 Agenda and theEuropean Commission’s aspiration for Europe to lead global food system transformations offer a critical opportunity to studytransformational processes and agents of change in a high-income region with externalised environmental and sustainabilityimpacts. Drawing on theories of complex systems transformations, this study identifies features of food system transformations,exploring places to intervene and examines the roles, responsibilities, and agency related to these changes. The resultsof this study provide three main conclusions highlighting (i) alignment of high-level policy and the perspectives of nationalpractitioners at the paradigm level, especially concerning how food is valued, which is a crucial first step for transformationalprocesses to come about (ii) a lack of clarity as well as diversity of pathways to transform food systems although commonobjectives are expressed, and (iii) governance mechanisms as enablers for a diversity of transformations. Moreover, theseprocesses must acknowledge the contextual and complex nature of food systems and the level of agency and power of actors.Funding: Linkoping University - MISTRA-The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research</p

Benefits and challenges of serious gaming – the case of “The Maladaptation Game”

The use of digital tools and interactive technologies for farming systems has increased rapidly in recent years and is likely to continue to play a significant role in meeting future challenges. Particularly games and gaming are promising new and innovative communication strategies to inform and engage public and stakeholders with scientific research. This study offers an analysis of how a research based game on climate change maladaptation can support, but also hinder players’ sense-making processes. Through the analysis of eight gaming workshops, this study identifies challenges and support for the players’ sense-making. While it concludes that conceptual thinking of game content sometimes clashes with players’ everyday experiences and practice, possibly resulting in loss of credibility, this study also concludes that gaming may function as an eye-opener to new ways of thinking. Overall, this paper suggests that the communication of (social) science and agricultural practices through serious gaming has great potential but at the same time poses challenges due to different knowledge systems and interpretive frameworks among researchers and practitioners